The UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) says the developing El Niño could bring near- to above-average rainfall from October 2026 to February 2027, with effects possibly continuing into March and April 2027 — the country’s main rain season. It said this El Niño could turn out stronger than the 2024 event, the year the UAE saw its heaviest rain on record in April.
“For the UAE, this could increase the chances of periods of heavy rainfall and severe weather, particularly during the winter,” said NCM director Dr Mohamed Al Ebri. He added: “There is no reason for alarm, but there is a reason to be prepared.”
What the forecast says
- October 2026 to February 2027: more significant weather events, with near- to above-average rain.
- March to April 2027: possible continued impact during the main rain season.
- Temperatures: near to above average throughout.
- Timing of individual storms cannot be predicted months ahead; they depend on actual weather systems.
How to prepare now
- Check your car insurance covers flood damage. Many basic third-party policies do not. See what changes the price of car insurance.
- Know where your building’s basement parking floods and move your car to a higher level when a warning is issued.
- Keep passports, Emirates ID and certificates in a sealed bag off the floor.
- Ask your landlord about roof and balcony drainage before the season starts. Repairs from water leaks are usually the landlord’s responsibility — see tenant rights.
- Follow NCM alerts (yellow, orange, red) on its app and official social media, and expect remote work or school days on red-alert days.
- Plan your commute. On storm days, the Metro and, from 30 September, Etihad Rail can be safer than driving — see public transport costs.
Common questions
Will it rain in the UAE in October 2026?
The NCM expects near- to above-average rainfall from October 2026 to February 2027 because of El Niño, but the timing of individual storms depends on weather systems nearer the time.
Could it be as bad as the April 2024 floods?
The NCM said this El Niño could be stronger than the 2024 event and could increase the chance of heavy rainfall, but it stressed there is no reason for alarm, only a reason to prepare.
Published 27 September 2026, based on NCM statements reported by Emirates 24|7 (11 September 2026) and Khaleej Times. Follow ncm.gov.ae for live warnings.
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